New Zealand Election

Probably on Saturday the 7th of November 2026 (104 days away)

 

Pita’s perspective…

 

1. First New Zealand general election:

  • 1st October 1853 173 years ago

  • Number of MPs: 37

  • Total registered electors: 5,849

2. Is enrolment to vote compulsory?:

  • Yes

3. How many votes cast in the 2023 election:

  • 2,851,211

4. What percentage of people didn’t vote in 2023:

  • 829,396 22.49%

5. Total people enrolled in 2023 election:

  • 3,688,292

6. Electorates:

  • North Island 48 75.0%

  • South Island 16 25.0%

  • 64 100.0%

7. Percentage of votes in 2023 election:

  • 77.5%

  • Earlier elections often more than 80.0%

8. New Zealand population at 30 March 2026:

  • 5,361,300

9. Youngest MP:

  • 21 years old Hana-Rewhiti

  • Oldest MP: 78 years old Winston Peters

10. MP salary (back bencher) as from 1 July 2026:

  • $181,200

11. Next election will be number:

  • 55

12. Average age of current New Zealand MP:

  • 49 years and one month

13. Average time of current MPs in office:

  • Just over 6 years.

14. Number of Māori MPs:

  • 33 (24.80%)

15. Number of women MPs:

  • 55 (44.70%)

16. General electorate seats:

  • 65 (52.85%)

  • List seats: 51 (41.46%)

  • Māori seats: 7 (5.69%)

  • Total seats: 123 (100.00%)

17. Present number of Cabinet members

  • National:
    In cabinet: 14
    Outside cabinet: 5

  • Act Party:
    In cabinet: 3
    Outside cabinet:2

  • NZ First
    In cabinet: 3
    Outside cabinet: 1

18. Salary of New Zealand Prime Minister:

  • $520,500 as from 1 July 2026

  • 2.87 times Back Bencher MP salary

  • 6.39 times the New Zealand average salary

19. Split of votes in 2023 election:


Total Votes
Percentage of Votes
Electorate Seats
List Seats Total Seats Percentage of Seats
National party 1,085,851 38.08% 43 5 48 39.03%
Labour party 767,540 26.92% 17 17 34 27.64%
Green party 330,907 11.61% 3 12 15 12.20%
ACT party 246,473 8.64% 2 9 11 8.94%
NZ First party 173,553 6.09% - 8 8 6.50%
Te Pāti Māori party 87,844 3.08% 7 - 7 5.69%
Other parties 159,043 5.58%
TOTALS 2,851,211 100.00% 72 51 123 100%

20. Coalition as at the present time (based on 2023 election)

21. What is looking like the key issue for the coming New Zealand 2026 election?

  • Almost certainly the current cost of living crisis.

A few thoughts, comments and suggestions in this regard

1. The estimated mean overall New Zealand household gross income for the 2026 year is $147,909

  • $ 2,844 per week

  • $12,325 per month

2. How many households are there in New Zealand in the 2026 year: 2,064,700.

3. What percentage of New Zealand households are in this cost-of-living crisis?

  • Hard to know as 30% of homeowners presently have no debt, but I feel perhaps 65% of New Zealand households are involved; say 1,340,000 households.

4. The average household debt of these 1,340,000 households again is hard to know because it will be all over the place. I suggest an average of $325,000.

5. The whole house ownership and home renting is complicated. Why?

  • 2,117,500 total houses

  • 781,500 houses are owned with a mortgage

  • 663,000 households are renting, but the owners will have a mortgage

  • 620,000 households have no debt.

  • 53,000 houses don’t show up anywhere (holiday homes etc)

6. The overall average New Zealand house rent for the 2026 year is currently at just on $600 per week ($31,200 per year).

7. Based on a mortgage of $325,000 and a 30-year term at 5% on a 1-year fixed rate, what does that add up to over a year:

  • $20,940 (this includes some loan principal repayment). The homeowner though, also has rates, insurance, and repairs and maintenance which presently come out at around 1.1% of the house value of say $850,000; that is $9,500 a year.

8. What is interesting is that the true annual cost of owning or renting over the period a couple are working, say 40 years, is similar

  • Renting $31,200 per year

  • Ownership including interest, principal, rates, insurance, repairs and maintenance $30,440 per year

  • This comparison alters enormously at the point of retirement – say 65 to 70 years of age. The owner’s costs with the mortgage reduce rapidly to say $9,500 per year while the rent costs remain the same at $31,200 per year.

9. How often will the homeowner’s future rates and insurance increase?

  • At 6% a year, the rates and insurance costs will double every 12 years.

10. Let's have a look at the current annual income and expense profile for this group of 1,340,000 households

Gross household income $147,909
Less expenses:
Income tax (PAYE) $28,900
ACC earner levies $2,590
Two cars (18,000 kilometres per annum) $22,500
Life assurance $1,200
Electricity $4,500
Phones (2) $2,500
Owning or renting $30,800
Holiday $2,000
School expenses $2,000
Allowance for unforeseen $600
Personal drawings ($4,166 per month) $50,000 $147,950
Estimated annual tax paid surplus $319

11. Comments on the income and expense profile

a. It is far too tight - needs a further gross income of at least $8,000, which after tax would improve their overall cash flow by $5,600.

b. Some in this 1,340,000 group will have 20 years or more in front of them, which really means they will be living pay day to pay day.

c. What are the options here:

i. Increase the gross income

ii. Reduce the expense

From an Accountant’s perspective, I would feel the split is:
Fixed costs: $144,390 (97.83%)
Variable costs: $3,200 (17%)
Total: $147,590 (100.00%)

This sort of split makes any change very difficult.

d. At the present time, the estimated total eligible number of New Zealand voters in the 2026 election is: 4,051,640.

If this is, say, 85% of the total vote, then this represents 3,443,894 voters

If our group of 1,340,000 households represent say 2 per household, that is 2,680,000 voters.

Say only 85% of our group vote, then our group represents 2,278,000 voters, which is 66% of the total of 3,443,894

e. In other words, this 1,340,000 group look as though they will control 66% of the total votes counted. Consequently, it is this group that our politicians should really be focusing on.

f. How have other countries coped with this situation?

A number have simply increased their debt, with countries like France, UK, Italy and Greece not able to borrow any more. Their interest payments tend to reduce what they can spend on education, health, and other more important expenses.

g. What can I see that will improve this income and expense profile

i. Continue working as long as possible

ii. Take all the overtime they can get

iii. Accept that a student loan will spread the education costs

iv. An early partial inheritance form Mum and Dad would be gold

v. Somehow reduce to just one car

vi. Defer the annual holiday

vii. Improve the vegetable garden

viii. None of these points will be very appealing, with the bottom line being that many in this 1,340,000 group are going to be locked in for a long time on the face of it.

h. What could government do to help, other than just words

i. Make various minor contributions re health and education costs.

ii. The 1,340,000 group need assistance to improve their focus on the longer view.

iii. This group is sick of long-term promises.

iv. The gross New Zealand average household income for the year ended 30 June 2025, was $139,111.
The 2026 estimated figure of $147,909 is an increase of $8,798, or 6.32%.
Maybe this is the best government answer, as hopefully this group's expenses of $147,909 will not increase by 6.32%.

v. Deep down people (voters) prefer honesty. With that honesty making it clear that:

o The present cost of living crisis is in concrete for a large number of New Zealand households.

o The government itself is still short of around $10 to $12 billion of fiscal income (taxes).

o Agriculture and tourism are both going well.

o New Zealand is running a two-speed economy, in that 65% are struggling and 35% are coping.

o A coalition government is not really helping.

o More growth is required, but almost every country in the world presently has this problem.

o The government is limited as to what they can do in the immediate future for the 1,340,000-household

group. Long term honesty is always the best policy.

o Maybe another 3-year term for the present government is worth considering, but this is more based on hope than history.


DISCLAIMER

Any views or opinions expressed in this article are those of Pita Alexander only and do not reflect the views of any other person or organisation.
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be financial advice.
Any errors or omissions are the author’s own.


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What Might New Zealanders Have In Front of Them for the Next 20 Years?